The price of Bitcoin has crashed over the past two months, a trend that may continue in the coming week as global risks rise. BTC dropped to a low of $74,500 on Wednesday, a 32% decline from its yearly high. This piece explains why Bitcoin’s price has plunged and the next key targets.
Global Tensions Drag Bitcoin Down
Bitcoin resumed its downtrend on Wednesday due to concerns about the US and China’s ongoing tensions. The two economic superpowers are on an unsustainable path that may trigger a global recession. On Tuesday, China has vowed to fight against measures implemented by Donald Trump. Hours later, Trump announced that the US would hike tariffs for all Chinese goods brought to the country by 50%. The measure, effective from Wednesday, pushed tariffs on all Chinese goods up to 104%.
China has vowed to fight back. This implies that Beijing may announce its countermeasures soon. Therefore, analysts believe that this trade war is a black swan event that may trigger a recession or even a depression. This explains why fear has spread in the financial market this month. The crypto fear and greed index has moved to 24, while the CNN Money gauge has retreated to 5.
Investors often stay on the sidelines when the fear and greed index is falling. Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have shed assets in the last four consecutive days, a trend that may continue for a while.
Technical Analysis Signals Further Declines
The weekly chart shows that Bitcoin has been in a strong downtrend over the past few months. The price dropped after the coin formed a double-top pattern at $108,520. It fell below the pattern’s neckline at $89,050 on March 3.
Bitcoin has moved below the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level and the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a victory for bears. Therefore, technicals suggest that the coin will continue falling as sellers target the next key support level at $73,550.
This target is notable for two reasons: It corresponds to the upper side of the handle section of the C&H pattern. Dropping to this level may signal a break-and-retest, a popular bullish continuation sign. It also aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
A break below that support level will indicate more Bitcoin price crashes to the 50% retracement point at $62,530, which is down by 19% below the current level. The bearish outlook will be nullified if Bitcoin rises above $87,000.
Bitcoin’s Price Forecast: A Potential Rebound
Per our current Bitcoin price prediction, the price of BTC is predicted to updive by 38.22% and reach $116,112 by April 28. Judging by technical indicators, the current sentiment is pointing bearishward while the Fear & Greed Index is showing 26 (Fear). BTC recorded 15/30 (50%) green days with 2.97% price volatility over the last 30 days. Based on the Bitcoin forecast, it's now a bad time to buy BTC.
BTC live chart. Source: TradingView
Over the next five days, Bitcoin will reach the highest price of $103,408 on Apr 03, 2025, which would represent 33.38% growth compared to the current price. This follows a -7.85% price change over the last 7 days.
This year, BTC is anticipated to change hands in a trading channel between $84,842 and $180,940, leading to an average annualized price of $125,314. This could result in a potential return on investment of 133.43% compared to the current rates.
Current Price: $77,494. Price Prediction: $116,112 (38.22%). Fear & Greed Index: 26 (Fear). Sentiment: Bearish. Volatility: 2.97%. Green Days: 15/30 (50%). 50-Day SMA: $89,357. 200-Day SMA: $84,704. 14-Day RSI: 45.26.